10 questions to answer before Trade Deadline (2024)

With Memorial Day firmly in our rearview mirror, it’s time for the annual rites of summer. Weekend traffic, barbecues and pool parties, and of course, trade talk.

The Major League Baseball Trade Deadline is roughly eight weeks away, giving teams until July 30 at 6 p.m. ET to figure out ways to tweak their rosters for the pennant races, or, in some cases, make moves they hope will lead to success in 2025 and beyond.

So what will we all be talking about between now and the end of July? Let’s take a look at some of the most pressing trade-related questions that will shape the storylines in June and July.

Which teams are likely to be sellers?

The introduction of a third Wild Card in each league in 2022 has led to fewer teams declaring such intentions before mid-July, but there are a handful of teams -- the White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Marlins and Rockies -- that figure to be headed in that direction.

Which teams are likely buyers?

It’s too early to tell exactly which teams will be in position to buy, as the standings are likely to change quite a bit between now and the end of July. That said, teams such as the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Royals, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers have all put themselves in position through the first two-plus months to believe they’ll be in position to add for the stretch run.

Which teams fall somewhere in the middle?

Ah, the dreaded middle. There are nine teams that trail their division leaders by at least nine games while remaining within 4.5 games of a Wild Card spot: the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Nationals, Mets, Reds Pirates and D-backs. Of those nine, only the Red Sox are at .500, while the rest own losing records.

The Padres held a slim Wild Card lead while the Giants and Cubs are tied for the third spot in the NL. The Rangers are only four games behind in the AL West and the Wild Card race, while the Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, D-backs and Reds are all within four games of a postseason spot. Where these clubs stand four to six weeks from now will determine how their front offices approach the Deadline.

You’ve mentioned 29 teams so far. What about the Astros?

The Astros figure to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in the coming weeks, as they own a 26-34 record that has them 7.5 games out of first place in the AL West and the same distance from a Wild Card spot. If the defending AL West champs find themselves in position to buy, they figure to focus on the starting rotation and first base.

Should the Astros opt to sell, their biggest chip would be Alex Bregman, who is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, who are under control through 2025, are also potential trade options. The most interesting piece could be Justin Verlander, who is earning $43.3 million this season and has a $35 million player option that kicks in if he throws 140 innings this season (he’s currently at 47).

Can the Jays climb back into the playoff picture?

Toronto has been a disappointment this season, though while their 28-30 record has them 12.5 games out of first place in the AL East, the Blue Jays stand only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The question GM Ross Atkins must ask himself is whether his club is good enough to bounce back and capture a postseason spot, or if trading one or both of his star players is a more logical route given the competitive nature of the AL -- and the AL East, specifically.

Both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are slated to become free agents after the 2025 season, so if Toronto doesn’t believe it can re-sign either or both players, moving them for a package of players and/or prospects could be the sensible move for the Blue Jays in the long term. The asking price will be understandably high, and even with Bichette having a subpar season in 2024, he would be a desirable asset for a number of clubs. Impending free agents Justin Turner, Danny Jansen, Kevin Kiermaier and Yusei Kikuchi could also be on the move if the Blue Jays decide to sell.

The White Sox appear to be sure-fire sellers, but who do they have to sell?

Chicago’s biggest trade chip is Luis Robert Jr., who is owed $15 million in 2025 and has $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027 (with a $2 million buyout). The White Sox could opt to hold on to Robert and try rebuilding around the talented outfielder, though that would leave GM Chris Getz with a number of low- to mid-level players to shop this summer.

Erick Fedde, who signed a two-year, $15 million deal this past offseason, would likely bring back a solid return given the number of teams that will be seeking a rotation upgrade. Michael Kopech, who is earning $3 million this season and has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, could also fetch a good return. After that, impending free agents including Tommy Pham, Michael Soroka, Tim Hill, Chris Flexen and Paul DeJong are likely to move, though none are likely to bring back any prospects of note.

Would the Athletics really trade Mason Miller?

It seems crazy to think that Oakland would trade Miller, the hard-throwing right-hander who has been one of the game’s best relievers this season. The 25-year-old is under club control through 2029, giving Miller tremendous value to both contenders and rebuilding teams alike. But given how impressive he’s been, why would the Athletics even think about dealing Miller?

For starters, Oakland is in the midst of a rebuild, so adding multiple top prospects for a closer could make sense. If the Athletics aren’t going to contend in the near future, is there a need to have a dominant closer? When you factor in the volatility of relief pitchers, Miller’s value might never be higher than it is now. It won’t be cheap, but if a club is willing to pay the price to add the fireballer to its bullpen, Oakland would have to at least listen to trade proposals.

Will the Mets be sellers for a second straight year?

The Mets’ 2023 season went up in smoke, resulting in a busy Trade Deadline that saw Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, David Robertson, Mark Canha, Tommy Pham and Dominic Leone all dealt in a five-day stretch. This season has been even worse -- New York is 11 games under .500 -- which could result in new president of baseball operations David Stearns making a number of deals.

Pete Alonso is surely the most intriguing name, as the slugger is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Would an Alonso trade leave any bitter feelings that might prevent him from returning to New York with a new contract this offseason? If the Mets want to re-sign him, that could be a factor when it comes to dealing him this summer. Other impending free agents include Luis Severino, J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, Jose Quintana, Drew Smith, Adrian Houser and Adam Ottavino, meaning a major roster turnover could be in the works if the Mets sell.

The Marlins have already traded Luis Arraez; who’s next?

Miami kicked off trade season earlier than expected, sending Arraez to the Padres in a deal on May 4. Nobody was surprised to see the Marlins sell, especially as Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez recover from Tommy John surgery, but the timing raised some eyebrows.

President of baseball operations Peter Bendix is in his first year with the club, so nobody knows how he will approach his first Trade Deadline as the lead executive. But Tanner Scott and Josh Bell -- both of whom will be free agents at the end of the season -- figure to draw interest, as does Jesus Lúzardo, who is under club control for two more years. Bryan De La Cruz will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so the Marlins could move him if the right offer comes along.

Will Alex Anthopoulos try to recreate his 2021 magic?

For the second time in four years, the Braves are dealing with the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn ACL, presenting a major challenge to Anthopoulos. In 2021, he acquired Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario, all of whom played key roles in Atlanta’s World Series championship run that season. That year, Acuña’s injury happened in mid-July, when multiple teams were already looking to sell.

Anthopoulos has a different scenario this year, as there are still nearly two months until the Trade Deadline. The Braves signed Ramón Laureano last week, but it’s quite possible that they could look to add more outfield talent -- names including Pham, Taylor Ward and De La Cruz have already been floated out there -- to help fill the void left by Acuña’s injury. Anthopoulos -- who also lost his ace, Spencer Strider, to an elbow injury earlier this season -- is one of the most creative executives in the league, so it will be fascinating to see how he handles the next two months.