MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for June 12 (2024)

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, June 12

YTD 92-87-1

Prior article 3-1 ( +2.52 units Mariners game voided Woo scratched)

SPLITS

I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we are in the early days of June, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

• 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
• 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
• 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
• 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

This Yankees team is a freight train right now as they smashed the Royals last night 10-1. Now they get to face rookie Dan Altavilla in his first start or Daniel Lynch. Either way, this could explode quickly. I wrote about the recent OVER history for both teams yesterday, but the Yankees are 8-2, 15-5, and 23-7 in their last 10/20/30 games.

We had a total of 9.5 yesterday and today opened at 10.5 so oddsmakers are expecting some fireworks.

MLB Picks for Yankees at Royals

• Yankees -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox

Much like yesterday, I will continue to go UNDER on these Red Sox totals in Fenway when they are posted at 8.5 or higher. We get a solid pitching matchup with Cristopher Sanchez against Nick Pivetta. I wrote about the Phillies struggles against right-handed pitching on the road (wRC+ of 68 in the last 30 days). Add in Pivetta's 30.1 strikeout rate and a lower walk rate of 3 points versus last year plus he last two starts have been lights out. We already know about the Red Sox at home against left-handed pitching and how bad they have been. It is an AUTO UNDER.

We saw a total of 5 runs in yesterdays game and I think we get more of the same tonight with a 4-2 type of result on the Phillies side.

MLB Picks for Phillies at Red Sox

• Phillies/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -112)

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Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

Jake Irvin has been on a tear and is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball with a 3.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 64 strikeouts, 14 walks, and only 6 homeruns allowed in 75 innings. But in his last four starts especially he has been unhittable - 1.48 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 26 strikeouts, 5 walks.

The Tigers are averaging close to four runs a game over the last month as a whole, now they face one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. It is hard to imagine they are able to put up more than that today.

MLB Picks for Nationals at Tigers

• Tigers UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)

Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have one of the WORST splits in terms of wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching (wRC+ of 56). Javier Assad has started to see some regression, but this is an extreme pitcher friendly ballpark and incredible matchup. In their last 15 home games overall, the Rays have scored just 2.7 runs per game. I will look at the Rays team total to go under.

MLB Picks for Cubs at Rays

• Rays UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

• Yankees -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)
• Phillies/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -112)
• Tigers UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
• Rays UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
• BONUS PROP - Jake Irvin UNDER 5.5 hits allowed for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
• BONUS PROP - Javier Assad OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 2 units (BetRivers -137)

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